In this video, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten provides his final 2026 midterm election forecast, projecting significant Democratic gains across the U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. His analysis is driven by record-low approval ratings for President Trump and Congress, alongside strong national Democratic polling.
Key Takeaways:
U.S. House Forecast: Enten projects Democrats to win 237 seats compared to 198 for Republicans (-), citing a significant 92% probability of a Democratic majority (-). He notes this is supported by a historic +9 lead on the national generic congressional ballot (-) and a favorable primary turnout edge (-).
U.S. Senate Forecast: The most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats to 48 Republican seats (-). Enten assigns a 71% probability to a Democratic Senate takeover (-), highlighting that several traditionally red-state races, including Texas, Kansas, and Alaska, are showing Democratic leads, albeit with very tight margins (-).
Gubernatorial Races: Prediction markets indicate an 83% chance that Democrats will hold a majority of governor seats (-), a rare occurrence in modern political history (-).
Strategic Caution: While the data leans heavily toward Democrats, Enten acknowledges that polling has historically underestimated Republican performance in certain states by roughly 4 points (-), which could potentially impact the final seat counts.
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